BoJ July 31 decision setup: market prices only ~3% hike odds (a hawkish hold expected), but independent research (Asia Macro Pulse) sees risk skewed toward a LESS hawkish outcome than the market's high expectations — a Yen-negative setup, with a December hike the base case. Compounding Yen risk: PM Takaichi may announce a consumption-tax cut as early as Jul 30 (fiscal-risk pressure), and USDJPY testing 164.00 (last approached Thursday) is a flagged intervention-headline trigger — though the move is judged dollar-strength-driven, limiting intervention efficacy. Bears on 6J (decision + intervention tail), ZN via JGB spillover. Near-term expression distinct from the structural japan-jgb-yield-cap and dormant boj-jpy-intervention themes.