Apollo's commodity-segmentation frame: energy and base metals are sending opposite macro signals. Oil falls on the Iran supply-shock unwind (disinflation/cut impulse) while copper/aluminum rise on structural data-center/EV/electrification demand independent of Iran; precious metals carry the inflation/safe-haven leg. Mechanism: if the copper signal dominates, falling oil overstates disinflation and the rate-cut thesis is incomplete because structural goods-demand inflation persists. Bears on CL (energy), ZN/SR3 (whether the disinflation read holds the rate path), and ES (electrification/AI-infra demand channel).