Trump's stated intent to 'handle' Cuba 'as soon as we've finished' with Iran opens a second-order geopolitical risk vector — paths floated: more economic pressure, air strikes, or Venezuela-style forced regime change. Mechanism: a fresh risk premium can migrate to Cuba once Iran resolves (deal closes → Cuba becomes next headline) or compound risk-off if Iran fails. Bears on CL (asymmetric geopolitical upside tail independent of Iran — a snap-back scenario where the market sells CL on Iran peace then Cuba re-bids premium), and on safe havens (ZN/GC) in a flare scenario.