ECB facing supply-side (Hormuz oil) inflation against contracting growth (EZ Q1 GDP -0.2% Q/Q). The hawkish 25bp hike (~Jun 11) makes the ECB the sole major CB tightening this week, sharpening a divergence trade vs a Fed whose risk-off reaction function would be 3–4 cuts. The rate-differential is near-term 6E-supportive, but macro commentators' fiscal-dominance thesis (Italy/periphery undermining ECB independence) structurally caps EUR upside. Bears on 6E (cross-current), ZN (ECB hike limits global rates relief into US CPI).