Meta-theme: an Iran-supply-shock-driven structural lift in r-star is converting June's BoJ/ECB/FOMC decisions from isolated data responses into a coordinated G4 tightening cycle (jwsmacro, lbmacro). The mechanism is higher neutral rates priced simultaneously across DM, compounding the US NFP bear case. Bears on ZN and SR3 (global rates bear, 75bp through Mar 2027 on BNP's model), 6E and 6J (hikes deemed structurally insufficient vs capital flows / fiscal constraints), and European 10Y rates.