Whether the 2026 mega-IPO wave (SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic et al.) is late-cycle froth or a benign AI-capital-demand cycle. GS's calibrated read: issuance dollars near records but deal count at historical norm and valuations below 2000/2021 peaks — supply heavy but not euphoric. Mechanism: IPO supply drains liquidity (the bear leg, shared with market-structure-fomo) while AI capital demand is the structural driver (the benign leg). SpaceX price action vs IPO entry is the live FOMO sentiment gauge. Bears on ES (liquidity drain / supply overhang vs benign-capital read).