ING/NewEdge frame a bifurcating US consumer as the structural dovish offset to the hawkish-tightening complex: real household disposable income has fallen three consecutive months, motor fuel +6.8% in May, wage growth decelerating with zero inflation-wage pass-through and falling savings rates. Lower-income households absorb the full energy-cost burden while higher-income households are insulated by property/equity wealth (SpaceX IPO, S&P near records). Mechanism: tightening into falling real incomes risks demand destruction, but energy-led inflation blocks easing — Warsh 'hostage to events in the Middle East.' Bears on SR3 (dovish if demand destructs faster; near-term blocked by energy inflation), ES (medium-term consumer-facing-sector risk).