A stagflation/regime-change long-end thesis distinct from the near-term Warsh rate-path: 30y nominal/real yields at multi-decade highs with real yields (not breakevens) driving the move (MS), framed as commodities (CRB) reclaiming leadership from financial assets and the disinflation architecture breaking (Hunt). Mechanism: a structurally higher term premium/real-rate regime that 'gives stocks competition' and breaks the 60/40 hedge. Bears on ZN (bearish duration, desks prefer curve trades to outright shorts), GC (via real-yield channel), ES (valuation competition from bonds).