Rising RBA (and RBNZ) tightening odds driven by the oil-shock inflation channel: as Brent approaches $90, CitiFX lifts RBA year-end hike odds to 82% (from 73%) with AGB 3y/10y yields at six-week highs, and sees NZ CPI upside risk keeping RBNZ hawkish enough for a September hike. Mechanism: the Iran oil shock transmits into antipodean front-end repricing. Bears on 6A (rate-differential / hike-odds channel); a regional expression of the same energy-shock-into-rates impulse hitting the Fed path.