A cross-asset risk-appetite regime signal: MS's MSI turning risk-on (off a mid-May risk-off low) plus DB's 'growth-resilient-through-the-war' thesis frame a tactical risk-on window as the Iran premium fades and AI-capex/easy-fiscal support holds. Mechanism: a sentiment-cycle turn that bears on ES (above-average forward returns historically), with a USD-soft / Europe-growth-upside corollary bearing on 6E. The Warsh presser is the immediate two-way swing risk to the signal.