GS's growth-outlook call: post-ceasefire, the US left-tail has narrowed (12M recession odds 25%→15%) on lower-gas real-income gains, AI-capex support and labor resilience. Mechanism: a lower recession probability compresses the dovish/cut tail and supports risk, cross-cutting the hawkish-Warsh and disinflation-cut camps. Bears on SR3 (reduced left-tail), ES (growth-supportive), ZN (less duration-haven demand). Tied to the Iran-flow downside risk.