Renewed US tariff escalation under Trump: a dated 50% Canada-goods tariff (energy/potash/critical-minerals carved out) plus a floated 100% generic-drug tariff (SCOTUS-proof legal rationale sought). Mechanism: trade friction as a DXY/inflation-expectations input and a supply-cost channel, distinct from the Iran/oil inflation leg; market currently discounting the threats on eroded Trump credibility (Bloomberg). Bears on DXY, 6E/6A/6B (trade-partner FX), ES (input-cost / sector) and CPI-expectations.