Venezuela's $240bn debt pile (well above the $150-200bn market estimate) opens the largest sovereign restructuring in history against a $100bn economy (from $370bn in 2012), implying debt/GDP >200% (Centerview adviser; macro framework this month, creditor blueprint July, deal target end-2026). Mechanism: the first major EM sovereign restructuring in years absorbs institutional attention and, if the headline number surprises further, is an EM-credit-spread-widening / USD-demand signal. Not directly in the book; bears on DXY (EM-contagion hedge) and broad EM FX.